Pair every estimate with a reference class: what happened last time under similar conditions. Add a multiplication factor based on your historical overrun. If the adjusted time no longer fits today, split the work or renegotiate. Celebrate accurate forecasts the same way you celebrate shipping. Precision improves when feedback loops are short, visible, and emotionally neutral rather than punitive.
Write a precommitment line that states the exact signal for stopping, even if you have invested heavily. For example, no measurable progress after two focused blocks means pause and review. Having this line visible turns pride into process. It liberates future time from projects that feel obligatory but no longer serve the outcomes you truly care about.
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